SUAVIZAMIENTO

ARGOS

METHOD ERROR

Additive 331.7229

Double 362.4165

Multiplicative

328.1804

No Seasonal 342.1393

Single 396.8953

BANCOLOMBIA

METHOD ERROR

Additive 190.8492

Double 219.5324

Multiplicative

188.7027

No Seasonal 196.6410

Single 212.8155

BAVARIA

METHOD ERROR

Additive 425.9483

Double 492.5209

Multiplicative

426.3369

No Seasonal 435.4330

Single 459.1091

CHOCOLATE

METHOD ERROR

Additive 203.2457

Double 239.3738

Multiplicative

200.8806

No Seasonal 213.9338

Single 247.5252

DTF

METHOD ERROR

Additive 0.363779

Double 0.375656

Multiplicative

0.373347

No Seasonal 0.303062

Single 0.457761

EXITO

METHOD ERROR

Additive 87.66614

Double 95.35605

Multiplicative

87.40432

No Seasonal 91.08833

Single 92.02850

USA1

METHOD ERROR

Additive 5.228692

Double 5.835141

Multiplicative

5.222790

No Seasonal 5.888308

Single 6.397335

USA2

METHOD ERROR

Additive 9.210659

Double 9.568757

Multiplicative

9.212256

No Seasonal 9.762693

Single 9.590805

TC

METHOD ERROR

Additive 88.21723

Double 110.4094

Multiplicative

89.34977

No Seasonal 87.38699

Single 92.72708

APLICACIÒN DEL METODO DE MENOR ERROR A LOS DATOS DE LA ACCIÓN

ARGOS

Multiplicative=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )* γ abril

Multiplicative=(21824.10+6.520944(100) )*1.000232

Multiplicative=22,481.40888

BANCOLOMBIA

Multiplicative=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )* γ abril

Multiplicative=(7967.327+36.87864(100) )*1.004611

Multiplicative=11,708.93309

BAVARIA

Additive=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )+ γ abril

Additive=(26968.94+71.41555(100) )+(-29.28270)

Additive=34,081.2123

CHOCOLATE

Multiplicative=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )* γ abril

Multiplicative=(8717.911+34.50761(100) )*1.008741

Multiplicative=12,275.03836

DTF

No Seasonal; Double(HOH)=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )

No Seasonal; Double(HOH)=(4.014481+ (-0.047329) (100))

No Seasonal; Double(HOH)=-0.718419

EXITO

Multiplicative=At+1=(mean+trend (t+1) )* γ abril

Multiplicative=(4700.766+8.050294(100)

...