Proyecto cuenca
ulisesgarnaTrabajo5 de Septiembre de 2018
333 Palabras (2 Páginas)112 Visitas
1. AJUSTE DE CURVA
2. METODOLOGIA
2.1 Método de Gumbel
2.2 Método de Distribución Gumbel II
2.3 Método de Distribución Pearson III
2.4 Método de Distribución Normal
3. DESARROLLO
3.1 Calculo por el método de Gumbel
3.2 Calculo por el método de Gumbel II
3.3 Calculo por el método de Pearson III
3.3 Calculo por el método de Distribución Normal
4. GRÁFICA
5. CALCULO DEL ERROR ESTANDAR
M | Año | Xi (mm) | Tr= (n+1)/m | Yi=Ln(Ln((Tr/Tr-1)) | X(mm) =β - (1/α) * Yi | α(X-β) | F(x) |
1 | 2009 | 30.52 | 28.00 | -3.314 | 36.201 | -3.314 | 0.964 |
2 | 2010 | 28.86 | 14.00 | -2.602 | 32.936 | -2.602 | 0.929 |
3 | 1994 | 25.6 | 9.33 | -2.177 | 30.987 | -2.177 | 0.893 |
4 | 1995 | 25.51 | 7.00 | -1.870 | 29.576 | -1.870 | 0.857 |
5 | 1998 | 25.3 | 5.60 | -1.626 | 28.458 | -1.626 | 0.821 |
6 | 1993 | 24.85 | 4.67 | -1.422 | 27.523 | -1.422 | 0.786 |
7 | 1997 | 24.8 | 4.00 | -1.246 | 26.714 | -1.246 | 0.750 |
8 | 1991 | 24.66 | 3.50 | -1.089 | 25.996 | -1.089 | 0.714 |
9 | 1996 | 24.43 | 3.11 | -0.947 | 25.345 | -0.947 | 0.679 |
10 | 2008 | 24.32 | 2.80 | -0.817 | 24.746 | -0.817 | 0.643 |
11 | 1989 | 24.31 | 2.55 | -0.695 | 24.188 | -0.695 | 0.607 |
12 | 1986 | 24.26 | 2.33 | -0.581 | 23.662 | -0.581 | 0.571 |
13 | 1985 | 24.09 | 2.15 | -0.471 | 23.161 | -0.471 | 0.536 |
14 | 1988 | 24.03 | 2.00 | -0.367 | 22.680 | -0.367 | 0.500 |
15 | 1992 | 23.88 | 1.87 | -0.265 | 22.214 | -0.265 | 0.464 |
16 | 2000 | 23.88 | 1.75 | -0.166 | 21.759 | -0.166 | 0.429 |
17 | 2002 | 23.88 | 1.65 | -0.068 | 21.311 | -0.068 | 0.393 |
18 | 1990 | 23.87 | 1.56 | 0.029 | 20.865 | 0.029 | 0.357 |
19 | 2003 | 23.77 | 1.47 | 0.127 | 20.418 | 0.127 | 0.321 |
20 | 2005 | 23.67 | 1.40 | 0.225 | 19.965 | 0.225 | 0.286 |
21 | 1999 | 23.58 | 1.33 | 0.327 | 19.501 | 0.327 | 0.250 |
22 | 2004 | 23.31 | 1.27 | 0.432 | 19.017 | 0.432 | 0.214 |
23 | 2001 | 22.93 | 1.22 | 0.544 | 18.504 | 0.544 | 0.179 |
24 | 2006 | 22.74 | 1.17 | 0.666 | 17.945 | 0.666 | 0.143 |
25 | 1984 | 21.38 | 1.12 | 0.804 | 17.313 | 0.804 | 0.107 |
26 | 2007 | 20.7 | 1.08 | 0.970 | 16.548 | 0.970 | 0.071 |
27 | 1987 | 20.6 | 1.04 | 1.204 | 15.478 | 1.204 | 0.036 |
MÉTODO DE GUMBEL
Media de Xi | 23.449 |
Desviacion S | 5.054 |
Parámetros | |
α = = [pic 1][pic 2] | 0.2177 |
β = Med - = 23.449 - [pic 3][pic 4] | 20.999 |
σy y µy son parámetros establecidos según la tabla anexa, en este caso:
σy = 1.1004 y µy = 0.5332
[pic 5]
MÉTODO DE GUMBEL II
M | Año | Xi (mm) | MedXi + (1/2)S | Población | Tr= (n+1)/m | X (mm) | -α1(Xi-β1) | -α2(Xi-β2) | e^α1(Xi-β1) | e^α2(Xi-β2) | F(x) |
1 | 2009 | 30.52 | 25.976 | Ciclonica | 28.000 | 29.13 | -0.009 | -1.918 | 0.991 | 0.147 | 2.445 |
2 | 2010 | 28.86 | 25.976 | Ciclonica | 14.000 | 27.7 | 1.331 | -1.597 | 3.783 | 0.202 | 6.703 |
3 | 1994 | 25.6 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 9.333 | 26.85 | 2.127 | -1.407 | 8.390 | 0.245 | 13.366 |
4 | 1995 | 25.51 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 7.000 | 26.25 | 2.689 | -1.273 | 14.720 | 0.280 | 22.112 |
5 | 1998 | 25.3 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 5.600 | 25.77 | 3.139 | -1.165 | 23.080 | 0.312 | 33.201 |
6 | 1993 | 24.85 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 4.667 | 25.38 | 3.504 | -1.078 | 33.261 | 0.340 | 46.213 |
7 | 1997 | 24.8 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 4.000 | 25.04 | 3.823 | -1.002 | 45.739 | 0.367 | 61.621 |
8 | 1991 | 24.66 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 3.500 | 24.75 | 4.095 | -0.937 | 60.021 | 0.392 | 78.697 |
9 | 1996 | 24.43 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 3.111 | 24.48 | 4.348 | -0.876 | 77.299 | 0.416 | 98.730 |
10 | 2008 | 24.32 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 2.800 | 24.24 | 4.573 | -0.822 | 96.792 | 0.439 | 120.665 |
11 | 1989 | 24.31 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 2.545 | 24.03 | 4.769 | -0.775 | 117.840 | 0.461 | 143.702 |
12 | 1986 | 24.26 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 2.333 | 23.82 | 4.966 | -0.728 | 143.466 | 0.483 | 170.990 |
13 | 1985 | 24.09 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 2.154 | 23.63 | 5.144 | -0.686 | 171.422 | 0.504 | 199.956 |
14 | 1988 | 24.03 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 2.000 | 23.46 | 5.303 | -0.648 | 201.023 | 0.523 | 229.850 |
15 | 1992 | 23.88 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.867 | 23.29 | 5.463 | -0.610 | 235.735 | 0.544 | 264.027 |
16 | 2000 | 23.88 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.750 | 23.13 | 5.613 | -0.574 | 273.864 | 0.563 | 300.621 |
17 | 2002 | 23.88 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.647 | 22.98 | 5.753 | -0.540 | 315.191 | 0.583 | 339.311 |
18 | 1990 | 23.87 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.556 | 22.83 | 5.894 | -0.506 | 362.756 | 0.603 | 382.740 |
19 | 2003 | 23.77 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.474 | 22.69 | 6.025 | -0.475 | 413.604 | 0.622 | 428.023 |
20 | 2005 | 23.67 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.400 | 22.56 | 6.147 | -0.446 | 467.183 | 0.640 | 474.604 |
21 | 1999 | 23.58 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.333 | 22.42 | 6.278 | -0.415 | 532.669 | 0.661 | 530.139 |
22 | 2004 | 23.31 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.273 | 22.3 | 6.390 | -0.388 | 596.059 | 0.679 | 582.591 |
23 | 2001 | 22.93 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.217 | 22.17 | 6.512 | -0.359 | 673.272 | 0.699 | 644.937 |
24 | 2006 | 22.74 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.167 | 22.05 | 6.625 | -0.332 | 753.395 | 0.718 | 708.027 |
25 | 1984 | 21.38 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.120 | 21.93 | 6.737 | -0.305 | 843.053 | 0.737 | 776.893 |
26 | 2007 | 20.7 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.077 | 21.81 | 6.849 | -0.278 | 943.381 | 0.757 | 852.008 |
27 | 1987 | 20.6 | 25.976 | No ciclonica | 1.037 | 21.7 | 6.953 | -0.253 | 1045.803 | 0.776 | 926.788 |
...