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Fore Casting


Enviado por   •  15 de Octubre de 2012  •  883 Palabras (4 Páginas)  •  400 Visitas

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THE IMPORTANT OF DEMAND FORESCASTING

To explain a forecast you must know what loyalty makes.

Loyalty makes the customers come back again and again they tell other about their experience.

How obtain this?

For obtain this, business must perform well.

ESTIMATE

The estimate is the number of potential buyers with the interest and ability to purchase a product or service.

• Calculate enough rooms

• Have enough personal

• Training staff

• Needed items

Here are the 4 components of effective

• Insight

• Future date

• Historical data

• Current data

Historical Data

Historical Data: Data describing event that have already occurred. Such data are also know as actual data and results data.

Every operating hotel generates historical Data even if data are not recorded or analyzed.

Understanding historical data is essential because a key aspect of any RM’s job is to see in to future. Put the another way, RM’s “study the past to define the future”.

Revenue Impact: This refers to the total impact on total hotel revenue of the additional rooms sales.

Expense Impact: This refers to the additional that would be incurred though the serving.

Impact on future pricing: this refers to the impact on the remaining room.

Fixed average: an average calculate using historical data generated during a specific and unchanged time period.

Rolling average: an average calculate by using historical data generated during a changing time period.

FUTURE DATA

The careful and continual monitoring of historical and current data help rooms manager better understand previous and existing demand for their hotel´s guest rooms.

Factors Affecting Future Demand

Estimating future rooms demand data requires insight and experience as well. This is so because a variety of factors directly impact the future demand for a hotel’s guest rooms and services.

These factors include.

Demand generators. An entity or event that produces a significant increase in business

Demand drains. A circumstance that produces a significant decrease in business.

The opening or closing of competitive hotels

The pricing decisions made by the property´s competitors.

The pricing decisions made by the property.

Forecasting Future Demand

RMs forecast future demand utilizing future (forecast) data.

Future forecast data describing event that will occur in the future.

RMs must.

*Know about special citywide events in the area that affect demand for their properties.

*Have an understanding of the demand for competitive hotel properties in the area

*Consider any the opening or closing of competitive hotels in the area

Basic Forecast Types

Occupancy forecast

*Produces daily and weekly occupancy percentage estimates.

*Helps improve employee scheduling.

*Shows guest arrival and departure patterns.

Demand forecast.

*Identifies periods of very low demand

*Produces at least weekly occupancy percentages.

*Used to help establish room rate selling strategies.

Revenue forecast.

*Forecasts 30 days out or more

*Matches revenue forecasts to pre-established budgets

Forecasting future demand is crucial for several reasons, including the determination of long-range revenue budgets, planning fort the hiring and training of new staff, and the scheduling of needed hotel renovation and repairs.

The actual development of a forecast of any type and for any period begins with an RMs clear understanding of the forecast’s

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