La Era De La Gloria

1. What is International Futures (IFs)?

1.1. Purposes

International Futures (IFs) is a tool for thinking about long-term global futures. It assists with:

• Understanding the state of the world:

• Exploring trends and considering where they might be taking us

• Learning about the dynamics of global systems

Thinking about the future we want to see:

• Clarifying goals/priorities

• Developing alternative scenarios (if-then statements) about the future

• Investigating the leverage various agent-classes have in shaping the future

Assumptions that underlie IFs development and use:

• Global issues are become more significant as the scope of human interaction and human impact on the broader environment grow

• Goals and priorities for human systems are becoming clearer and are more frequently and consistently enunciated

• Understanding of the dynamics of human systems is growing rapidly

• The domain of human choice and action is broadening

What can you investigate with IFs? Examples include:

• Environmental Sustainabity: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, world forest area, fossil fuel usage

• Social/Political Change: Life expectancy, literacy rate, democracy level, status of women, value change

• Demographic Futures: Population levels and growth, fertility, mortality, migration

• Food and Agriculture: Land use and production levels, calorie availability, malnutrition rates

• Energy: Resource and production levels, demand patterns, renewable energy share

• Economics: Sectoral production, consumption, and trade patterns and structural change

• Global System: Country and regional power levels

There is a web site for IFs at which you can obtain additional information: http://www.du.edu/~bhughes/index.html

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