Analisis Industria Home Movies De Estados Unidos

1) Market Size and Forecast

Recession and disruptive business models make for dim outlook

The market for video rentals and sell-through has been on the decline since 2005 (figures below include revenues from physical discs, streaming, and digital transmission). Matters were made worse by the recession in 2009, which drove consumers to pull back on physical disc purchases and seek out better values in the rental space (e.g., subscriptions). Sales continue to be negatively impacted by emerging disruptive business models, including streaming libraries and automated kiosks.

Revenues declined in 2009 and 2010 even as the number of consumer transactions for pre-recorded content grew (see Market Drivers). This indicates that demand for movies at home remains stable and that pricing pressure is causing the overall sales decline.

More recent DEG data suggest that times may get even tougher for the industry, with first-quarter spending on rentals and sell-through in 2011 falling 10% to $4.7 billion. Traditional distribution channels (physical disc sell-through and video store rental) appear to be in free fall, while new value channels (subscription and kiosk rentals) and digital transmission are seeing strong growth.

Over the next five years, sales of digitally transmitted content and Blu-ray discs are expected to grow enough to compensate for declining DVD revenues. Studios continue to experiment with ways to best harness the power of digital delivery; growth will depend on their ability to develop successful business models that increase value to the home viewer (e.g., shorter windows to home release).

Figure 3: U.S. sales of movie sell-through and rental, at current prices, 2005-15

$billion % change Index (2005 = 100) Index (2010 = 100)

2005 21.8 - 100 116

2006 21.6 -0.9 99 115

2007 21.4 -0.9 98 114

2008 21.0 -1.9 96 112

2009 19.4 -7.6 89 103

2010 18.8 -3.1 86 100

2011 (fore.) 18.9 0.7 87 101

2012 (fore.) 19.6 3.5 90 104

2013 (fore.) 20.2 2.9 93 107

2014 (fore.) 20.7 2.5 95 110

2015 (fore.) 21.2 2.7 97 113

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

Figure 4: U.S. sales of movie sell-through and rental, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15

$billion % change Index (2005 = 100) Index (2010 = 100)

2005 24.0 - 100 127

2006 23.1 -3.7 96 123

2007 22.0 -4.6 92 117

2008 21.7 -1.5 91 115

2009 19.7 -9.1 82 105

2010 18.8 -4.6 78 100

2011 (fore.) 18.7 -0.6 78 99

2012 (fore.) 19.1 1.9 80 101

2013 (fore.) 19.3 1.1 80 102

2014 (fore.) 19.4 0.5 81 103

2015 (fore.) 19.5 0.5 81 103

Adjusted for inflation using the All Items CPI

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

Fan-chart forecast

Mintel has produced this forecast using advanced statistical techniques, including stepwise, multivariate regression, and the autoregressive procedure using the statistical software package SPSS.

The model is based on historical market size data taken from Mintel’s own market size database and supplemented by published macroeconomic and demographic data from various private and public sources, including the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Commerce Department, the Census Bureau, the Council of Economic Advisers, and the Congressional Budget Office. The model searches for relationships between actual market sizes and a selection of relevant and significant macroeconomic and demographic determinants (independent variables) to identify those predictors having the most influence on the market.

For the forecast of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending the following predictor variables were used in the forecast: per capita personal consumption expenditures and U.S. adult population.

Next to historical market sizes and a current year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the probability of various outcomes for the market value of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending over the next five years.

The future uncertainty within this market is illustrated by the colored bands around the five-year forecast. The widening bands successively show the developments that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50% probability intervals. Statistical processes predict the central forecast to fall within the darker shaded area, which illustrates 50% probability (i.e., a five in 10 chance).

At a 95% confidence interval, Mintel is saying that 95 out of 100 times, the forecast will fall within these outer limits, which Mintel calls the best and worst case forecast as these, based on the statistically driven forecast, are the highest (best case) and lowest (worst case) market sizes the market is expected to achieve.

The best and worst case forecasts take the value of U.S. consumer home entertainment rental and sell-through spending from an estimated $18.8 billion in 2010, to $25.7 billion (best case) and $16.7 billion (worst case) in 2015. Based on the forecast derived above, however, Mintel expects the market to grow to a total of $21.2 billion in 2015.

Figure 5: Fan-chart forecast at 50-95% confidence levels, 2005-15

Source: Mintel/Digital Entertainment Group

If you want more details about this particular report, please contact the Mintel information team on +1 312-932-0400 in the U.S. or +44 (0)20-7606-6000 in the UK and the rest of the world, or email them to info@mintel.com\

2) Competitive Context

Movie Consumption at Home - US - May 2011

This report is supplied in accordance with Mintel's terms and conditions. © Mintel Group Ltd.

Movie theaters increase bang for the buck

Over the last decade, home movie viewing has been increasingly seen as a viable substitute for moviegoing at the cinema. Larger HD television screens enhance the home experience and, together with home theater sound systems, have been blamed for stunting the growth of theater admissions over the last five years.

In response, the theater industry has moved forward with technologies that increase the value proposition of a movie ticket, including bigger screens (IMAX) and enhanced 3D viewing.

• As the number of 3D releases grew from eight in 2008 to 20 in 2009 (and the number of 3D screens available worldwide tripled), box office receipts grew by 10%, suggesting that 3D would be a driver of future growth. However, box office receipts for 2010 were stagnant despite even more 3D releases, placing the theatrical draw of 3D in question.

• 3D does appear to have had a positive effect on average ticket prices (moviegoers typically pay a premium of about $3 for 3D screenings). The National Association of Theater Owners reports that the average movie ticket in the first quarter of 2010 cost 6% more than the fourth quarter of 2009, thanks largely to the success of Avatar in 3D. Annual data show that average ticket prices grew by 5.2% in 2010, the highest growth in more than five years.

Figure 1: U.S. box office revenues and admissions, 2005-10

Year Box office receipts Change Number of tickets sold Change Average ticket price Change

$million % million % $ %

2005 8,841 - 1,379 - 6.41 -

2006 9,210 4.2 1,406 1.9 6.55 2.2

2007 9,664 4.9 1,405 -0.1 6.88 5.0

2008 9,631 -0.3 1,341 -4.5 7.18 4.4

2009 10,596 10.0 1,413 5.3 7.50 4.5

2010 10,565 -0.3 1,339 -5.2 7.89 5.2

Source: Mintel/BoxOfficeMojo.com

The home video industry may be aided in the future by increasing penetration of 3D HDTV models, but this may take some time. In Televisions—U.S., January 2011, Mintel reports that only 3% of respondents own a 3DTV, with another 3% saying they definitely plan to buy in the next six months, and 9% saying they would consider buying.

Box office receipts may be further challenged in 2011 by the introduction of a premium early-release VOD by DirecTV, which offers HD rentals of new releases just two months after their theatrical premiere (see Innovations and Innovators). This service is still highly experimental but will likely impact moviegoing habits of large families if kept in place.

Cinematic video games reduce time spent watching TV

Competition for leisure time at home comes from a variety of possible activities, but the most comparable experience to watching a movie may come from video gaming. Recent games developed for both console (e.g., Nintendo, Sony PlayStation) and PC platforms provide a near-cinematic experience. Games are promoted with trailers that rival movies in the level of story development.

Based on findings reported in Console and PC Games—U.S., October 2010, it seems apparent that video games are a more likely substitute for movies in households with children.

• A third (33%) of adult Mintel respondents have played a console game in the last three months, and a quarter (25%) have played a game on a PC. About 15% say they spend more time playing video games than watching TV, and 22% say they find video games more entertaining than TV.

• When looking at teen respondents (aged 12-17), 82% have played a console game in the last three months. Roughly a quarter (24%) of teens say they spend more time playing video games than watching TV, and a third (33%) say that video games are more entertaining than TV.

Sales of packaged video games in North America grew explosively in 2007 and 2008, even as spending on home video saw mild declines. In 2009, recession cutbacks caused video game sales to plummet by 10.4%. However, sales growth over the six-year period from 2005 to 2010 (50%) far exceeds that of the home

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